Senators demand crackdown on wildfire "prediction markets"

Fire experts warn such markets could incentivize arson.

The short version

• The document specifically cites that Polymarket hosted bets in January 2025 on the wildfires in Los Angeles, and it mentions another website which specifically accepts “simulated bets” exclusively on California wildfires.
• “There’s also the heightened risk—according to state and local fire officials—that individuals could be tempted to commit arson in order to make sure their bets are successful,” the letter continues.
• On Tuesday, the Spokane County Sheriff’s Office announced the arrest of an arson suspect who is believed to have started one of the blazes currently threatening Spokane, Washington, and the surrounding area.

What happened

Several hundred buildings have already been destroyed, and approximately one quarter of the city’s population has recently been ordered to evacuate. The CFTC did not immediately respond to Ars’ request for comment.

Why it matters

Kalshi is one of the major prediction markets.

Summary by Nerd News Network. Read the full article at Ars Technica via the links above and below.