AI was supposed to hit new grads hard. So far, unemployment data says otherwise.
"There is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring”..
"There is no evidence of any significant, widespread displacement or reduction in hiring”.
The short version
- There’s some reason to believe 2026’s graduating job seekers might be more at risk of AI displacement than those graduating just a year or two prior.
- At a base level, the summer unemployment rate for those young college graduates in 2026 (7.3 percent) was well within the range seen in previous years (from 6.3 percent in 2022 to 7.8 percent in 2024).
- The 2026 numbers were similarly unremarkable when expanded to include graduates who told the CPS survey they “want a job” even though they weren’t actively looking for one (and thus don’t officially count as part of the official “unemployed” labor force).
What happened
To test the robustness of these findings, the researchers created statistical tests to compare the recent college graduates both with non-college graduates in the same age range and with older college graduates (aged 30 to 49). They also broke down employment by potential “AI exposure” based on a 2023 study of which job roles AI systems were best equipped for .
Why it matters
In almost all of the comparisons, any trend differences between the groups in the 2022 to 2026 time frame studied were not statistically significant.
Summary by Nerd News Network. Read the full article at Ars Technica via the links above and below.